1. Time estimator2. Supplemental material

This website contains supplemental material for the article:

Morgane Koval, Yvonne Jansen. Do You See What You Mean? Using Predictive Visualizations to Reduce Optimism in Duration Estimates. CHI 2022 - Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems, Apr 2022, New Orleans, United States. DOI 10.1145/3491102.3502010.

This work builds on previous research targeting the planning fallacy, a phenomenon in which underestimation of future tasks' duration is almost systematic and not lessened by the knowledge of how long past tasks have taken to be completed. We conducted a crowdsourced study (see scenario) based on the hypothesis that compound probabilities and mixture distributions, involved in the estimation of a task duration, are difficult to mentally process. 145 participants provided different estimates of overall and sub-task durations and we used these to generate predictive visualizations of the resulting mixture distributions (see resulting dot plots). We also introduced a linechart tool to half of the participants, aimed at supporting time-related decision making. The way they interacted with the visualization is presented with animated gif (see linecharts). The four conditions included in the experiment are accessible here to try out (for illustration only, no data is being logged). For more information on the procedure, analysis and results, you can refer to the paper, explore our OSF project, our pre-registration, or access the final data analysis output directly.

Static experiment pages

Interactive experiment pages

Resulting dot plots

Animated linecharts